Manual Champion
SECTOR L/S · TOP-2 vs BOTTOM-2 OF 10 SECTORS▶About this strategy — what it is, what it looks for, how it operates
Manual Champion (research/278 v4, validated in research/279). This paper book tracks the Sector L/S leg ONLY (70% of the full manual strategy): long top-2 + short bot-2 of 10 sector ETFs by 60d return. The 30% put-selling leg (weekly SPY+QQQ ATM puts) is manually executed via `python manual_champion_predict.py`. Full-strategy backtest 2022-26: Sh +3.17 hedged, CAGR +22.8%, DD -3.7%, WR 67.9%, β +0.03. Bootstrap 95% CI Sharpe [+1.93, +3.61]. Walk-forward: every test window positive, train/test track closely. Cost-robust to 30bps.
- Sector L/S leg (this book)Long top-2 + short bot-2 of XLK/XLF/XLE/XLV/XLY/XLP/XLI/XLU/XLB/XLC by 60d return. Bi-weekly rebalance. ~4 ETF positions at any time.
- Index VRP leg (manual, separate)Each Monday: sell 5DTE 0.5% OTM SPY + QQQ puts. Close Friday. Run `python manual_champion_predict.py` for daily picks.
- Validation in research/279Bootstrap CI: P(Sh > 1.0) = 100%, P(Sh > 2.0) = 96%. Walk-forward 6 windows: every test segment positive (worst +1.68, best +5.02). Cost-robust: Sharpe loses only 0.17 from frictionless → 30bps + $1.30/contract + 15% bid/ask haircut.
- Beta stabilityFull window β -0.01. Rolling 26-week β: mean +0.02, |β|<0.20 67% of weeks, |β|<0.30 87% of weeks. True market neutral.
- Honest tradeoff vs UltimateLoses -0.33 Sharpe but wins on DD (-3.7% vs -7.4%), WR (68% vs 60%), β (+0.03 vs +0.10), and complexity (6 positions vs 150).
Backtest — 5-fold walk-forward, honest true-daily marks (2024-01 → 2026-05)
Sharpe
3.17
Win rate
68%
CAGR
+22.8%
Max DD
-3.7%
Backtest numbers, not live results — measured on honest true-daily marks across a 5-fold walk-forward with 10bps costs. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
TOTAL P&L
-$2
-0.16% on $1,110 deployed
REGIME PAUSED
VIX 14.9
PERFORMANCE
RETURN
-0.16%
-$2 on capital deployed
SHARPE
2.01
annualized
WIN RATE
48.48%
48W / 50L
MAX DD
-4.30%
worst drawdown
REALIZED P&L
-$2
99 closed trades
UNREALIZED P&L
+$1
12 open positions
LONG EXPOSURE
$101
net +$81
SHORT EXPOSURE
$20
gross $121
Last scan: 8/20/2026, 10:17:21 AM
Next scan: in 3h 10m (22:00 UTC weekday)
Open Positions12 held · live MTM
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Recent Closed Tradeslast 99 closed · most recent first
| SIDE | TICKER | ENTRY | EXIT | PROFIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | XLV | $163.64 | $175.68 | +$1 +7.36% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $116.70 | $116.36 | +$0 +0.29% | |
| LONG | XLV | $162.00 | $169.73 | +$0 +4.77% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.20 | $44.18 | +$0 +0.05% | |
| LONG | XLF | $57.29 | $57.58 | +$0 +0.51% | |
| LONG | XLV | $163.63 | $167.05 | +$0 +2.09% | |
| SHORT | XLP | $86.00 | $86.09 | $-0 -0.10% | |
| LONG | XLF | $56.81 | $58.16 | +$0 +2.38% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $43.20 | $44.04 | $-0 -1.94% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.15 | $44.04 | +$0 +0.25% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.10 | $44.04 | +$0 +0.14% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.25 | $44.04 | +$0 +0.47% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.24 | $44.04 | +$0 +0.45% | |
| LONG | XLF | $56.82 | $58.26 | +$0 +2.53% | |
| LONG | XLF | $57.29 | $57.92 | +$0 +1.10% | |
| LONG | XLF | $57.13 | $57.80 | +$0 +1.17% | |
| LONG | XLV | $159.90 | $164.45 | +$0 +2.85% | |
| LONG | XLV | $160.97 | $164.16 | +$0 +1.98% | |
| LONG | XLV | $157.53 | $162.10 | +$0 +2.90% | |
| LONG | XLV | $161.00 | $162.24 | +$0 +0.77% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $110.87 | $116.09 | $-0 -4.71% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $109.10 | $116.09 | $-1 -6.41% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $110.48 | $116.09 | $-1 -5.08% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $111.95 | $116.09 | $-0 -3.70% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $111.66 | $116.09 | $-0 -3.97% | |
| LONG | XLV | $161.81 | $162.55 | +$0 +0.46% | |
| LONG | XLK | $177.83 | $174.30 | $-0 -1.99% | |
| LONG | XLK | $177.82 | $174.30 | $-0 -1.98% | |
| LONG | XLK | $178.80 | $174.30 | $-0 -2.52% | |
| LONG | XLK | $183.10 | $174.30 | $-0 -4.81% | |
| LONG | XLK | $178.15 | $174.30 | $-0 -2.16% | |
| LONG | XLK | $184.01 | $175.88 | $-0 -4.42% | |
| LONG | XLK | $184.76 | $178.45 | $-0 -3.42% | |
| SHORT | XLB | $50.50 | $50.82 | $-0 -0.63% | |
| SHORT | XLB | $50.33 | $50.82 | $-0 -0.97% | |
| LONG | XLK | $177.48 | $180.27 | +$0 +1.57% | |
| LONG | XLK | $179.84 | $180.78 | +$0 +0.52% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $116.22 | $114.61 | +$0 +1.39% | |
| SHORT | XLB | $50.80 | $50.53 | +$0 +0.53% | |
| LONG | XLF | $56.30 | $56.75 | +$0 +0.80% | |
| LONG | XLF | $56.76 | $56.75 | $-0 -0.02% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $117.12 | $117.34 | $-0 -0.19% | |
| SHORT | XLB | $50.66 | $50.50 | +$0 +0.32% | |
| SHORT | XLY | $116.01 | $115.90 | +$0 +0.09% | |
| LONG | XLV | $159.78 | $158.29 | $-0 -0.93% | |
| LONG | XLV | $160.97 | $158.29 | $-0 -1.66% | |
| LONG | XLV | $163.41 | $158.29 | $-0 -3.14% | |
| LONG | XLV | $162.48 | $158.29 | $-0 -2.58% | |
| LONG | XLV | $161.80 | $158.29 | $-0 -2.17% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $45.45 | $45.72 | $-0 -0.59% | |
| LONG | XLK | $181.00 | $185.78 | +$0 +2.64% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $55.08 | $55.08 | +$0 +0.00% | |
| LONG | XLK | $188.15 | $185.35 | $-0 -1.49% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $45.74 | $45.36 | +$0 +0.83% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $55.46 | $55.60 | $-0 -0.26% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $45.63 | $45.36 | +$0 +0.59% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $53.06 | $55.60 | $-0 -4.79% | |
| LONG | XLK | $184.07 | $181.40 | $-0 -1.45% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $53.24 | $55.60 | $-0 -4.43% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $53.50 | $55.60 | $-0 -3.93% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $53.04 | $55.60 | $-0 -4.82% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $54.14 | $54.64 | $-0 -0.92% | |
| LONG | XLK | $184.68 | $179.18 | $-0 -2.98% | |
| LONG | XLF | $56.31 | $56.05 | $-0 -0.45% | |
| LONG | XLI | $182.24 | $185.56 | +$0 +1.82% | |
| LONG | XLI | $179.07 | $185.56 | +$0 +3.62% | |
| LONG | XLI | $184.70 | $185.56 | +$0 +0.47% | |
| LONG | XLI | $179.16 | $185.56 | +$0 +3.57% | |
| LONG | XLI | $180.77 | $185.56 | +$0 +2.65% | |
| LONG | XLK | $192.95 | $183.57 | $-0 -4.86% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $45.03 | $45.76 | $-0 -1.62% | |
| LONG | XLI | $182.50 | $183.91 | +$0 +0.77% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $54.14 | $53.22 | +$0 +1.70% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $55.26 | $52.81 | +$0 +4.43% | |
| SHORT | XLE | $55.00 | $53.11 | +$0 +3.44% | |
| LONG | XLK | $177.79 | $184.57 | +$0 +3.81% | |
| LONG | XLK | $178.16 | $183.05 | +$0 +2.74% | |
| LONG | XLK | $185.91 | $184.19 | $-0 -0.93% | |
| LONG | XLK | $185.22 | $192.15 | +$0 +3.74% | |
| LONG | XLK | $188.88 | $191.44 | +$0 +1.35% | |
| LONG | XLB | $52.52 | $52.02 | $-0 -0.95% | |
| LONG | XLB | $52.69 | $52.02 | $-0 -1.27% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.22 | $45.06 | $-0 -1.90% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.04 | $45.06 | $-0 -2.32% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.22 | $45.06 | $-0 -1.90% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $44.32 | $45.06 | $-0 -1.67% | |
| SHORT | XLU | $43.64 | $45.06 | $-0 -3.25% | |
| SHORT | XLC | $110.89 | $112.19 | $-0 -1.17% | |
| LONG | XLF | $52.24 | $53.56 | +$0 +2.53% | |
| SHORT | XLC | $111.41 | $112.19 | $-0 -0.70% | |
| LONG | XLF | $52.18 | $53.56 | +$0 +2.64% | |
| SHORT | XLC | $111.48 | $112.19 | $-0 -0.64% | |
| SHORT | XLC | $112.91 | $112.19 | +$0 +0.64% | |
| LONG | XLF | $52.49 | $53.56 | +$0 +2.03% | |
| SHORT | XLC | $111.59 | $112.19 | $-0 -0.54% | |
| LONG | XLF | $52.96 | $53.56 | +$0 +1.13% | |
| LONG | XLF | $52.35 | $53.56 | +$0 +2.32% | |
| SHORT | XLP | $82.59 | $83.44 | $-0 -1.03% | |
| LONG | XLE | $58.67 | $57.67 | $-0 -1.70% |