Options Book— shadow tracker
An option-combination book: it sells defined-risk call credit spreads on the ML book's predicted shorts — ~35 DTE, short strike ~0.75 SD out-of-the-money, closed at 65% of max profit. Validated in backtest at pooled Sharpe ~2.2 (research 134-148). Tracked here in shadow mode — real per-contract option prices, no orders placed — to see whether the edge holds forward.
Live shadow performance
Days live
107
Equity
$100,018
Total return
+0.02%
Open spreads
19
Live Sharpe
0.24
Backtest Sharpe
2.2
Shadow tracking since 2026-05-15, marked on real per-contract option closes (data asof 2026-10-16). Live Sharpe needs a few weeks of data to be meaningful. Backtest pooled Sharpe was ~2.2 but front-loaded — a fair forward expectation is ~1.
Open spreads (19)
| Ticker | Short / Long | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Open P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 7d | $0.91 | -97.3% |
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 7d | $1.25 | -96.9% |
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 7d | $1.62 | -96.3% |
| GME | 20.5 / 24c | 2026-10-23 | 7d | $1.64 | -96.2% |
| LCID | 7 / 7.5c | 2026-11-06 | 21d | $0.02 | -8.3% |
| IONQ | 55 / 65c | 2026-11-13 | 28d | $0.32 | +0% |
| SEDG | 41 / 45c | 2026-11-13 | 28d | $0.43 | +0% |
| QS | 7 / 9c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.05 | +0.5% |
| SEDG | 42.5 / 65c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.99 | +0.2% |
| LCID | 7 / 8c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.01 | +0% |
| LULU | 135 / 140c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.02 | -0.8% |
| QS | 7 / 9c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.02 | -1% |
| LULU | 135 / 150c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.08 | +0.1% |
| QS | 7 / 9c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.03 | -0.5% |
| SEDG | 42.5 / 50c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.33 | -4% |
| LULU | 135 / 140c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.06 | +0% |
| QS | 7 / 8c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.02 | +0% |
| SEDG | 42.5 / 52.5c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.75 | +0% |
| TTD | 17.5 / 22.5c | 2026-11-20 | 35d | $0.10 | +0% |
How it works
- Each day it takes the ML book's 10 predicted shorts and, on each, sells a call credit spread — short call ~0.75 SD OTM, long call ~1.75 SD OTM, ~35 days to expiry.
- Spreads are marked daily on real per-contract option closes and closed once they capture 65% of the max credit, or at expiry.
- Defined-risk and short-biased. The edge is the ML short signal plus the volatility premium — strongest in dispersed markets, weaker in broad melt-ups.
- Shadow mode only — no broker orders. Option spreads need a multi-leg execution stack the live system doesn't have; this page is the honest forward record while that edge is evaluated.