Options Book— shadow tracker
An option-combination book: it sells defined-risk call credit spreads on the ML book's predicted shorts — ~35 DTE, short strike ~0.75 SD out-of-the-money, closed at 65% of max profit. Validated in backtest at pooled Sharpe ~2.2 (research 134-148). Tracked here in shadow mode — real per-contract option prices, no orders placed — to see whether the edge holds forward.
Live shadow performance
Days live
66
Equity
$83,492
Total return
-16.51%
Open spreads
112
Live Sharpe
-1.4
Backtest Sharpe
2.2
Shadow tracking since 2026-05-15, marked on real per-contract option closes (data asof 2026-08-19). Live Sharpe needs a few weeks of data to be meaningful. Backtest pooled Sharpe was ~2.2 but front-loaded — a fair forward expectation is ~1.
Open spreads (112)
| Ticker | Short / Long | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Open P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB | 57.5 / 62.5c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.14 | -84.5% |
| LYB | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.35 | -88.8% |
| LYB | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.40 | -88.7% |
| LYB | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.52 | -88.5% |
| LYB | 62.5 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.12 | -59% |
| ACN | 165 / 215c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.85 | -36.2% |
| SMCI | 35 / 45c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.91 | -10.6% |
| ACN | 170 / 215c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.80 | -28.9% |
| COP | 120 / 135c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.41 | -68.7% |
| LYB | 62.5 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.50 | -38.3% |
| OXY | 60 / 67.5c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.58 | -0.9% |
| SMCI | 34 / 44c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.96 | -18.9% |
| COP | 125 / 135c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.70 | -51.1% |
| LYB | 62.5 / 70c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.46 | -38.7% |
| OXY | 60 / 65c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.40 | -5% |
| SMCI | 31 / 40c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.89 | -58.6% |
| IONQ | 40 / 50c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.78 | -18.4% |
| RGTI | 17 / 21c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.49 | +2% |
| IONQ | 40 / 50c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $1.67 | -19.4% |
| RGTI | 16.5 / 20c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.64 | -1% |
| SMCI | 29.5 / 37c | 2026-08-21 | 2d | $0.79 | -81.5% |
| OXY | 62 / 65c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $0.10 | -9.3% |
| SMCI | 30 / 37c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $1.09 | -73.6% |
| ACN | 160 / 170c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $1.45 | -96.4% |
| IONQ | 41 / 50c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $1.95 | -18% |
| ACN | 155 / 180c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $2.52 | -51.9% |
| IONQ | 40 / 48c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $1.35 | -29.8% |
| RGTI | 17.5 / 21.5c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $0.59 | +1.5% |
| ACN | 165 / 180c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $2.03 | -49.1% |
| IONQ | 39 / 46c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $1.16 | -51.5% |
| RGTI | 17 / 20.5c | 2026-08-28 | 9d | $0.48 | -7.6% |
| BE | 225 / 310c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $8.38 | +0.9% |
| DOW | 32 / 36c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.40 | -1.4% |
| IONQ | 40 / 50c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $1.50 | -31.6% |
| IREN | 46 / 60c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $1.48 | -5.6% |
| RGTI | 18 / 23c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.58 | -0.7% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.97 | -15.6% |
| OXY | 61 / 68c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.68 | -6% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.80 | -17.3% |
| BMNR | 22 / 30c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.33 | -2.9% |
| GLW | 170 / 210c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $3.34 | +2.6% |
| MRVL | 235 / 300c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $7.95 | -13.3% |
| SMCI | 37 / 41c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.56 | -17.7% |
| BMNR | 21.5 / 26c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.43 | -5.2% |
| CRWV | 115 / 125c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $1.27 | +9% |
| MRVL | 240 / 310c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $6.91 | -11% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-04 | 16d | $0.90 | -16.3% |
| MRVL | 245 / 275c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $6.00 | -6.2% |
| QS | 6.5 / 8c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.20 | +9.2% |
| SMCI | 37 / 50c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.80 | -4.6% |
| IONQ | 50 / 60c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.34 | +7.2% |
| MRVL | 250 / 300c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $7.60 | -7.9% |
| SMCI | 37 / 50c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.40 | -7.8% |
| IONQ | 48 / 60c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.62 | +3.3% |
| IREN | 60 / 65c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.26 | -1.7% |
| MU | 1095 / 1410c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $23.85 | +2.5% |
| SMCI | 37 / 50c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.36 | -8.2% |
| BBAI | 3.5 / 4c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.11 | +15.4% |
| BMNR | 22 / 27c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.48 | -3.8% |
| SHOP | 140 / 162.5c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $11.68 | +28.8% |
| SMCI | 37 / 50c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.49 | -7.1% |
| BBAI | 3.5 / 4c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.09 | +9.8% |
| BMNR | 21.5 / 27c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.57 | -5.5% |
| QS | 6.5 / 8c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.22 | +10.9% |
| SHOP | 135 / 160c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $14.25 | +24.7% |
| SMCI | 36 / 45c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $1.32 | -14.1% |
| SMR | 11.5 / 14c | 2026-09-11 | 23d | $0.19 | +3% |
| AMD | 590 / 750c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $6.16 | +2.2% |
| ARM | 340 / 450c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $5.43 | +3.3% |
| DELL | 560 / 710c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $10.68 | +2.2% |
| LITE | 1100 / 1450c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $17.86 | +2.4% |
| LRCX | 390 / 500c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $4.67 | +2.2% |
| MU | 1150 / 1510c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $10.76 | -0.8% |
| SMCI | 42 / 55c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.89 | -2% |
| AMD | 590 / 740c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $7.53 | +3.3% |
| IREN | 60 / 80c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $1.34 | +2.8% |
| LITE | 1090 / 1440c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $36.70 | +7.3% |
| MU | 1140 / 1500c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $24.00 | +3% |
| SNDK | 1840 / 2600c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $75.68 | +2.5% |
| WDC | 570 / 750c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $18.80 | +6.3% |
| CRWD | 245 / 282.5c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $4.65 | +7.7% |
| ENPH | 50 / 60c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.64 | +3.2% |
| IREN | 65 / 90c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.77 | +1.2% |
| SMR | 12 / 15c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.19 | +2.1% |
| SNDK | 2370 / 3340c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $19.26 | +0.2% |
| WDC | 650 / 850c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $7.05 | +2.2% |
| ARM | 350 / 440c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $3.50 | +2.5% |
| CRWD | 245 / 280c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $4.41 | +7.4% |
| ENPH | 50 / 55c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.26 | -0.2% |
| IREN | 65 / 90c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.75 | +1.1% |
| LITE | 1220 / 1600c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $25.62 | +4.6% |
| RGTI | 24 / 30c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.31 | +3.5% |
| SMR | 12 / 15c | 2026-09-18 | 30d | $0.13 | +0% |
| COHR | 430 / 500c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $6.05 | -1.9% |
| CRWV | 135 / 165c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.89 | +1% |
| IONQ | 55 / 70c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $1.17 | +2.2% |
| IREN | 60 / 75c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.77 | -0.2% |
| LITE | 1195 / 1400c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $15.56 | -1.7% |
| RUM | 9.5 / 12c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.22 | +0.9% |
| SNDK | 2370 / 2630c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $11.70 | +1.1% |
| SOUN | 9 / 10.5c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.10 | +0% |
| STX | 1125 / 1450c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $21.31 | +0% |
| WDC | 635 / 715c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $9.26 | +0% |
| ARM | 320 / 400c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $3.36 | +0% |
| CRWV | 135 / 155c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.46 | +0% |
| IREN | 60 / 75c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.80 | +0% |
| LITE | 1115 / 1400c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $18.50 | +0% |
| MRNA | 74 / 85c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $1.22 | +0% |
| RUM | 10 / 12c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.27 | +0% |
| SMCI | 50 / 65c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.47 | +0% |
| SNDK | 2360 / 2630c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $9.00 | +0% |
| U | 55 / 60c | 2026-09-25 | 37d | $0.72 | +0% |
How it works
- Each day it takes the ML book's 10 predicted shorts and, on each, sells a call credit spread — short call ~0.75 SD OTM, long call ~1.75 SD OTM, ~35 days to expiry.
- Spreads are marked daily on real per-contract option closes and closed once they capture 65% of the max credit, or at expiry.
- Defined-risk and short-biased. The edge is the ML short signal plus the volatility premium — strongest in dispersed markets, weaker in broad melt-ups.
- Shadow mode only — no broker orders. Option spreads need a multi-leg execution stack the live system doesn't have; this page is the honest forward record while that edge is evaluated.