MC Put Leg— real-price shadow tracker
Manual Champion's 30% leg sells weekly near-ATM SPY + QQQ puts (Monday, 0.5% OTM, settled at Friday expiry). The research/278 backtest priced this leg with a Black-Scholes model (20d realized vol × 1.20) — a synthetic assumption. This page replays it with real Polygon per-contract prices, no orders placed, so the model-vs-market gap is measured instead of assumed.
Live shadow performance
Shadow since 2026-06-05 (the manual_champion paper-book deployment), marked on real per-contract option closes, data asof 2026-10-19. Equity basis $10,000 — returns are P&L / strike (cash-secured convention), matching the backtest.
Model vs market premium
Ratio 1.00 = the backtest's BSM × 1.2 pricing was exact. Full-history replay (2022-05 → 2026-06, 418 real-priced trades): this leg standalone earned weekly Sharpe +0.20, CAGR +1.3%, 73% weekly win rate, −10.3% max drawdown, worst week −7.3% — versus Sharpe +0.74 / CAGR +6.4% under the backtest's synthetic pricing (research/295). Nearly all of Manual Champion's alpha lives in the sector leg; treat this leg as roughly breakeven income with crash exposure, not an engine.
Weekly put cycles (latest 16)
| Entry | Ticker | Strike | Expiry | Credit | Model | P&L | Ret | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | SPY | 764 | 2026-10-23 | $3.35 | $1.84 | +$0.00 | +0.00% | open |
| 2026-10-19 | QQQ | 716 | 2026-10-23 | $5.85 | $4.08 | +$0.00 | +0.00% | open |
| 2026-10-12 | SPY | 775 | 2026-10-16 | $2.18 | $2.19 | $-10.29 | -1.33% | closed |
| 2026-10-12 | QQQ | 742 | 2026-10-16 | $3.56 | $3.77 | $-29.54 | -3.98% | closed |
| 2026-10-05 | SPY | 771 | 2026-10-09 | $1.95 | $2.16 | +$1.94 | +0.25% | closed |
| 2026-10-05 | QQQ | 753 | 2026-10-09 | $3.70 | $4.03 | +$2.05 | +0.27% | closed |
| 2026-09-28 | SPY | 762 | 2026-10-02 | $2.95 | $2.46 | +$2.94 | +0.39% | closed |
| 2026-09-28 | QQQ | 733 | 2026-10-02 | $4.75 | $4.02 | +$4.74 | +0.65% | closed |
| 2026-09-21 | SPY | 770 | 2026-09-25 | $2.11 | $2.38 | +$2.09 | +0.27% | closed |
| 2026-09-21 | QQQ | 738 | 2026-09-25 | $3.79 | $4.30 | +$3.78 | +0.51% | closed |
| 2026-09-14 | SPY | 756 | 2026-09-18 | $3.82 | $1.63 | +$3.81 | +0.50% | closed |
| 2026-09-14 | QQQ | 706 | 2026-09-18 | $4.66 | $2.74 | +$4.65 | +0.66% | closed |
| 2026-09-08 | SPY | 762 | 2026-09-11 | $2.26 | $1.08 | +$2.25 | +0.29% | closed |
| 2026-09-08 | QQQ | 715 | 2026-09-11 | $3.72 | $2.48 | +$3.46 | +0.48% | closed |
| 2026-08-31 | SPY | 764 | 2026-09-04 | $2.21 | $1.90 | +$2.20 | +0.29% | closed |
| 2026-08-31 | QQQ | 714 | 2026-09-04 | $3.43 | $4.53 | +$3.42 | +0.48% | closed |
Credit = real Polygon close of the selected contract on entry day. Model = the backtest's BSM × 1.2 price for the same contract. Settles at the put's own real expiry-day price. Strike targeting uses put-call parity implied spot (adjusted-close immune).