MC Put Leg— real-price shadow tracker
Manual Champion's 30% leg sells weekly near-ATM SPY + QQQ puts (Monday, 0.5% OTM, settled at Friday expiry). The research/278 backtest priced this leg with a Black-Scholes model (20d realized vol × 1.20) — a synthetic assumption. This page replays it with real Polygon per-contract prices, no orders placed, so the model-vs-market gap is measured instead of assumed.
Live shadow performance
Shadow since 2026-06-05 (the manual_champion paper-book deployment), marked on real per-contract option closes, data asof 2026-08-19. Equity basis $10,000 — returns are P&L / strike (cash-secured convention), matching the backtest.
Model vs market premium
Ratio 1.00 = the backtest's BSM × 1.2 pricing was exact. Full-history replay (2022-05 → 2026-06, 418 real-priced trades): this leg standalone earned weekly Sharpe +0.20, CAGR +1.3%, 73% weekly win rate, −10.3% max drawdown, worst week −7.3% — versus Sharpe +0.74 / CAGR +6.4% under the backtest's synthetic pricing (research/295). Nearly all of Manual Champion's alpha lives in the sector leg; treat this leg as roughly breakeven income with crash exposure, not an engine.
Weekly put cycles (latest 16)
| Entry | Ticker | Strike | Expiry | Credit | Model | P&L | Ret | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | SPY | 769 | 2026-08-21 | $1.82 | $3.32 | $-0.48 | -0.06% | open |
| 2026-08-17 | QQQ | 726 | 2026-08-21 | $3.39 | $6.71 | $-6.77 | -0.93% | open |
| 2026-08-10 | SPY | 769 | 2026-08-14 | $2.32 | $3.41 | +$2.31 | +0.30% | closed |
| 2026-08-10 | QQQ | 718 | 2026-08-14 | $4.60 | $7.38 | +$4.59 | +0.64% | closed |
| 2026-08-03 | SPY | 755 | 2026-08-07 | $2.30 | $3.42 | +$2.29 | +0.30% | closed |
| 2026-08-03 | QQQ | 697 | 2026-08-07 | $5.15 | $6.63 | +$5.14 | +0.74% | closed |
| 2026-07-27 | SPY | 736 | 2026-07-31 | $4.51 | $2.53 | +$4.50 | +0.61% | closed |
| 2026-07-27 | QQQ | 679 | 2026-07-31 | $7.75 | $6.22 | +$7.74 | +1.14% | closed |
| 2026-07-20 | SPY | 739 | 2026-07-24 | $3.72 | $2.74 | +$3.22 | +0.44% | closed |
| 2026-07-20 | QQQ | 693 | 2026-07-24 | $7.10 | $6.83 | $-1.91 | -0.28% | closed |
| 2026-07-13 | SPY | 746 | 2026-07-17 | $3.30 | $3.57 | $-0.23 | -0.03% | closed |
| 2026-07-13 | QQQ | 708 | 2026-07-17 | $6.54 | $8.13 | $-6.97 | -0.98% | closed |
| 2026-07-06 | SPY | 748 | 2026-07-10 | $1.82 | $4.82 | +$1.81 | +0.24% | closed |
| 2026-07-06 | QQQ | 720 | 2026-07-10 | $5.39 | $10.93 | +$5.38 | +0.75% | closed |
| 2026-06-29 | SPY | 738 | 2026-07-02 | $2.80 | $3.99 | +$2.79 | +0.38% | closed |
| 2026-06-29 | QQQ | 721 | 2026-07-02 | $6.20 | $8.84 | $-2.34 | -0.33% | closed |
Credit = real Polygon close of the selected contract on entry day. Model = the backtest's BSM × 1.2 price for the same contract. Settles at the put's own real expiry-day price. Strike targeting uses put-call parity implied spot (adjusted-close immune).