Edge Lab
New findings from the 2026-07 discovery round, under live forward validation before any scale-up. Everything here is paper / tiny-size — hard external data anchors vs retail venue prices. Marks are live cost-to-close net of fees. Updated 8/20/2026, 6:30:05 PM UTC.
Real positions
KXTOPMONTHLY-26JUL-BRU — LONG 10 @ 64¢ · now 0/100 · live −$7 · realized −$2
Anchored edges — politics fast-resolvers + music
Poll/ratings-calibrated and streaming-data-anchored mispricings on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Paper sells opened at conservative band edges; resolve Jul 28 – Aug 25.
| Edge | Venue | Side | Fair band | Tier | Position | Mark | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| music_bruno_jul | kalshi | BUY | 88–96% | WATCH | REAL 10@64¢ | — | 2026-07-31 |
| pol_mn_flanagan | pmus | SELL | 50–70% | GO | 100@81¢ lost | −$20 | 2026-08-11 |
| pol_mi_elsayed | pmus | SELL | 35–55% | GO | 100@65¢ lost | −$36 | 2026-08-04 |
| pol_sd_rhoden | pmus | SELL | 88–95% | GO | 100@85¢ lost | −$16 | 2026-07-28 |
| pol_ok_mazzei | pmus | SELL | 55–70% | GO | 100@79¢ open | +$4 | 2026-08-25 |
| pol_nv_gov_rep | pmus | BUY | 55–68% | WATCH | — | — | 2026-11-03 |
| pol_me_sen_rep | pmus | BUY | 45–60% | WATCH | — | — | 2026-11-03 |
| mx_ret_sol | kalshi | SELL | 10–18% | GO | 100@31¢ open | +$11 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_ret_xrp | kalshi | SELL | 8–15% | GO | 100@28¢ open | −$7 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_ret_eth | kalshi | SELL | 7–14% | GO | 100@21¢ open | −$19 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_ret_doge | kalshi | SELL | 9–16% | GO | — | — | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_50v100 | kalshi | SELL | 34–48% | GO | 50@54¢ open | +$10 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_sold26_200 | kalshi | SELL | 3–6% | GO | 100@10¢ open | −$7 | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_btcminy40 | kalshi | SELL | 20–28% | GO | — | — | 2027-01-01 |
| mx_dogemax1 | kalshi | SELL | 0–1% | GO | 100@4¢ open | −$3 | 2027-01-01 |
Live P&L −$12 · realized −$72 · 7 paper positions open. Fresh entries mark negative by the spread+fees until the anchor thesis plays out — that cost is the honest price of the test.
Cross-venue lock monitor — Kalshi ↔ Polymarket US
Two-sided risk-free locks on rulebook-identical markets (65 pairs: MLB futures + state politics), net of both taker fees, every 30 min.
2 positive net-taker lock(s) live:
GOV:MI:R K->P: net +0.2¢ (maker +1.2¢) × 5 cts | K 12.0/13.0 vs P 15.0/16.0
KXMLBNL:ATL K->P: net +0.1¢ (maker +1.1¢) × 1 cts | K 12.0/13.0 vs P 14.9/15.0
KXGTEMP — hottest-year 2026
SELL-YES vs GISS/ENSO-conditional fair. El Niño developing → entry gate closed; tracker enters if price rises or ENSO stalls.
Model fair 20.5% (stress 37.3%) · 2 open · live −$78 · realized +$0
MAXY crypto touch-ladders
Deribit-anchored moon-ticket premium selling (paper), DVOL regime-gated.
15 legs open · live −$83 · realized +$0
Rotten Tomatoes nowcast
Live review-flow tracking vs KXRT ladders — edge is repricing speed around embargo lifts. Next: Spider-Man Brand New Day (~Jul 28).
- ODY: 95 (365✓/19✗ of 384)
Corporate-action alerts
EDGAR full-text watch: odd-lot tenders, exchange offers, reverse-split cash-outs. Alert-only; ~$1–2k/yr ceiling.
no HIGH-priority filings in the last 30 days (45 total)